Gallup on Rove on Clinton and Losing in 2008
Those who support Hillary Rodham Clinton play down Karl Rove’s assessment that she is ‘fatally flawed.’ Those who oppose Hillary Rodham Clinton play up the numbers suggesting she will not be able to overcome her negatives. Over the past week Karl Rove’s comments on the topic received a great deal of attention and were followed by at least one post at WaPo’s ‘ The Trail ‘ countering Rove’s claim as well as a comparison of Romney’s numbers being one point worse than Clinton’s. Careful examination of the available information and not making too much of it regardless of your preferences might be the best course.
The current Rasmussen Report displaying negative numbers of the candidates is a percentage of 800 likely voters that would ‘definitely vote against’ each candidate as well as a percentage of those who would definitely vote for each candidate. The % of those who would definitely vote for each candidate looks remarkably similar to most of the election polls about all the candidates. The negatives receiving much attention lately show Clinton and Romney topping the list at 43 and 44%, respectively, while all the others are in the 30’s. This observation is less dramatic than the sensational headlines and quotes competing for readership.
The story started with Rove’s assertion that Hillary Rodham Clinton’s negative numbers render her ‘fatally flawed.’ While Gallup’s Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport says he doesn’t think the numbers make her fatally flawed, he notes Bill Clinton at 37% eight months before he won but never reached the high 40’s. Gore and Kerry were in the 40’s before losing their bids for the White House. (SOURCE)
The reference that follows is also from the Gallup folks and presents a contrast from the previous one. But the choice of words, ‘not that different’ are a bit misleading from their other quotes and numbers.
Not so fast, says Gallup. In a new analysis posted today, Gallup’s Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones and Joseph Carroll write that “a review of historical Gallup data suggests that contrary to Rove’s assertions, her current image ratings do not necessarily spell defeat.” While it is true that Clinton has high unfavorable ratings, they write, her numbers are not that different from at least two other candidates who have gone on to win — Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2004.
The quote above appears to change from the earlier statements and adds President Bush’s re-election numbers which deals with a candidate who was already President, not someone seeking the office for the first time. The argument on the meaning of Clinton’s negative numbers now seems to focus on everything but the fact that no one is challenging winning with negative numbers like Hillary Rodham Clinton’s has never been done. The discussion has now moved off that fact to a focus on Rove’s assertion that it makes her fatally flawed. So what they are really saying is no one has ever won the Presidency with numbers like hers but they don’t think that means she can’t win. Okay, whatever.
Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com
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August 23rd, 2007 at 4:24 pm
‘Tis quite true that Hillary’s numbers are not fatal to her at this time.
Problem is her experience is.
This makes it doubtful that her numbers get better, although they might.
As the mainstream media puts a positive spin on her experience in the Clinton Whitehouse, in particular, some of her healthcare initiatitives, it becomes evident that improvement will be a tall order.
Her healthcare mandates during her stint as Co-President are now of legendary impact- and have ushered in a damaging debate about the high content of mercury in mandated vaccines and its impact on children’s health.
One would think that this debate can only get worse as more people become acquainted with the issue.