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The filing deadline for 2nd quarter campaign finance reports is July 15th. Already there is the pre-deadline chatter about who raised what and candidate reactions or lack of them. One headline said the Democratic candidates were quiet about their 2nd quarter numbers. A quick visit to their campaign sites found Obama’s news section referring to a report that his campaign raised $32.5 million through the small donor strategy. Without analyzing, debating or arguing the details, if that is accurate one must say that Barack Obama’s campaign turned in a stellar fund raising performance for quarter two.

The Clinton website had no such announcement or news item. The reasons for that are unknown but one has to imagine if her money machine had done better the news would be out there. Richardson had no announcement or news item but a headline indicates he came in fourth in fund raising. Coming in fourth in a three person race speaks for itself. But Richardson can take heart that Edwards did report results on his website and $9 million compared to Richardson’s $7 million adjusts the relative strength of the lower tier money game.

The first quarter results had Mitt Romney out front which he won’t be this time according to reports. His $23 million numbers last quarter included a loan of about $3 million so the net raised is more like $20 million and this quarter’s estimate is just short of that meaning a flat trend line. McCain will miss his $10 million goal which puts him in the Edwards and Richardson club. There’s not much out there on Giuliani’s 2nd quarter but his first was around $15 million and unless he surprises like Obama this quarter his numbers will likely be about the same as quarter one.

If Obama’s large cash pile for quarter two is truly from small donors does that mean deep pocket contributors are not interested? If he in fact relied on small donors this time around can he expect a similar result for quarter three? At an average of 50 bucks per donation and 250000 donors would raise 12 1/2 million. He raised $32.5 million so the breakdown would be interesting to see. A wild guess would suggest a mixed bag of large and small donors.

It is no surprise that Edwards, McCain and Richardson are in the single digit millions category. As predicted here before, those three won’t make it to the conventions. Similarly, it is only a matter of time before the Brownbacks, Dodds and other lower tier candidates fall off the 2008 landscape. It is still a battle for supremacy between Clinton and Obama on the left and Thompson, Romney and Giuliani on the right. Nothing else really matters and is only the sideshow in this circus.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Friday, June 29, 2007
New York Senator Hillary Clinton, the front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination is viewed as politically liberal by 47% of American voters. While that’s down from 55% a month ago, it’s still higher than the percentage of voters who see her major opponents as politically liberal. Just 42% say that former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is politically liberal while 41% say that label applies to Illinois Senator Barack Obama.

from MoreWhat.com:
This is strange enough but the entire report at Rasmussen rates how conservatives, ‘moderates’ and liberals view the Queen of Cringe in terms of political leanings. It would be more accurate to rank her as not conservative, moderate or liberal. HRC is not concerned with the agenda of any political persuasion. She is only concerned about HRC. To say whatever is deemed necessary to enter the White House is it. There is no other agenda. Get in the White House and try to rule the planet HRC style.

For 2008, the GOP in Congress is probably going to lose some more members in light of events since the midterms. The Democratic majority has been so pitiful since the midterms they will lose some members also. Net effect, to early to tell who will be the majority next time.

For President, your choices on the Dems side are too risky. No explanation should be necessary in terms of HRC. The personal and political history are enough of a reason for an informed voter to reject Hillary Rodham Clinton. While Barack Obama has some staunch support from a wide audience it is probable he will not be able to win enough key states to win the nomination. Plus it is his first time out and coupled with the limited experience chances are slim. Edwards and Richardon will suffer from fund raising difficulties indicating their limited support. Edwards will do better than Richardson in the first primary or two. But they will both fail.

So your only choice is on the GOP side of the world. McCain’s bid is essentially over though he denies it and never really got started after a pathetic open with little attention paid to fund raising. Alienating deep pocket contributors from the past and taking hard stands on Iraq and illegal immigration were the stake in the heart. Giuliani will likewise succumb to liberal attitudes and history shortcomings after an intense attempt to rebuild his image and look Presidential. Brownback and others will go the way of most 2nd tier candidates and the final contest will be between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney. If Thompson’s strategy does not betray him he may have an edge over Romney. If the success of his strategy does not launch him to the stars after the annoying delays of an announcement, if it ever comes, Romney may have won enough from early spending, continued fund raising success and victories in the early states to make it a convention fight for the nomination.

Barring a massive scandal or two on either side of the Presidential race for 2008, Romney or Thompson will likely face Clinton or Obama in the election. The Dems will lose again and begin the mourning and another allegation of voting fraud and a stolen election. The GOP victor will face a first term with another slim Democratic majority in Congress. But the GOP members of Congress will have seen the error of their party ways and provide even more difficulties for the Dems and retake the majority in the midterms following the 2008 election.

Go ahead, suggest that this is not a probable outcome over the next few years.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

As pointed out in several other posts on this blog, the money game is a detriment to the McCain and Edwards’ campaigns and possibly less of a problem for Giuliani as his poll numbers help him right now. As the season progresses that may not be enough for Giuliani. His campaign hopes to stay close to Romney’s 2nd quarter numbers. While Romney may break Bush’s record from the 2nd quarter of 1999. Bush raised $37 million through the 2nd quarter and Romney has 23 from the first and only needs $14 million to tie. If his campaign bests the Bush record from 99 or exceeds it the psychological edge plus the ability to pressure opponents with campaign spending through the early primary states where he leads could spell the end for a campaign competitor or two.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Rivals race to catch Romney money machine

By: Jonathan Martin
Jun 23, 2007 09:00 AM EST
John McCain, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani
Mitt Romney is expected to best his GOP rivals in the race for cash and could surpass an important Bush benchmark.

As the second quarter fundraising deadline approaches, expect one thing: Mitt Romney is probably going to top the record-setting cash haul that George W. Bush racked up in the first half of 1999.

Three of Mitt Romney’s competitors for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination have in some way apologized for their campaign personnel or themselves for attacking the Mormon faith. Romney seems to have played the unfortunate comments or actions down until now. Today he indicated one’s faith should not be part of the campaign discussion while it appears that at least some people in the other campaign camps seized the opportunity to use it as a negative campaign tool.

Giuliani’s campaign troubles will come from his liberal social positions like marriage and abortion. McCain’s campaign troubles will come from his positions on Iraq and immigration. McCain has the additional problem of fund raising as does one of his Democratic rivals, John Edwards. With Fred Thompson laying in the weeds attracting some support in the polls without campaigning, the remainder of the GOP field including Romney may view this as the largest challenge if and when Thompson announces.

The attraction to using the cheap shot about Romney’s faith may be signs of panic from the Giuliani, McCain and Brownback camps. Mitt Romney has mostly stayed on message and only recently made any real notice of the religion issue. One can hardly blame him for finally expressing his own comments as if to say enough already.

Another poll was out today from Gallup claiming a huge rise in the popularity and numbers of Democrat versus GOP candidates. After reviewing the polls of the last few months it is difficult to believe the Dems would have been able to reverse the trends since the campaign season began. Even the polls regardless of source year to date were more of a conversation piece than anything to take seriously this early on. The fantasy scenarios to which polling subjects were expected to respond suggest the pollsters were looking to boost the numbers for various candidates in order to increase demand for the polling data. In other words, the validity of polls may be more suspect than typical.

From this blog again comes the prediction that based on limited support and fund raising capacity, the McCain and Edwards campaigns will continue to fade and become the first top tier candidates to withdraw. The earliest indications to lead to that conclusion was the refusal of Giuliani and McCain to compete in the Iowa straw poll. Signs of Romney strength in the early states may show their reluctance to spend limited funds against a stronger opponent with a much larger war chest.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney Objects to Campaign Attacks

By BROCK VERGAKIS
Associated Press Writer
SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Mitt Romney said Saturday that criticism of his Mormon religion by rival GOP presidential campaigns is happening too frequently.

“Clearly, any derogatory comments about anyone’s faith - those comments are troubling. The fact they keep on coming up is even more troubling,” Romney said during a fundraising trip in the home state of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

This story has been out for a few days at least and shows no signs of being abandoned by the press. It may be there insatiable appetite for cheap news that last forever and costs nothing. Then again, they may be thinking this is the first story that could stand to be a self-inflicted wound for the Romney campaign. It comes nowhere near the meltdown proportions of Howard Dean’s primal screaming session in ‘04′ but it could be the first campaign flaw. Unless you count the one where the big fund raiser in Utah is the subject of multiple law suits.

Why would anyone with a brain in their head do something like that alleged in the story? If the press is on your tail it should be no surprise if you are part of a national political campaign. News people and others in the media have a tendency to follow the stories even if the outcomes are not that impressive. The folks at the Romney campaign should be having a few meetings they may have missed at the beginning. The ones that define what is expected and vet the members of the campaign to avoid these situations. If someone dropped the ball about these matters it will do more damage to a campaign than the actual news reports like the one here.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney Aide Takes Leave Amid Probes

Saturday June 23, 2007 3:01 AM
By GLEN JOHNSON
Associated Press Writer

BOSTON (AP) - An ever-present aide to Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney took a leave of absence Friday after he became the subject of investigations in two states for allegedly impersonating a law enforcement officer. His attorney denied the charges.

Quite the long wait for an apology but then doesn’t this sort of thing happen during political campaigns? Does Mitt Romney really care what someone thinks about his faith? Maybe the McCain volunteer should apologize to all Mormons or is an apology really needed at all? Some will find it distasteful and others may think it much ado about nothing.

One reason if may be thought of as much ado about nothing relates to information beginning to accumulate about fund raising of both McCain and Edwards. Not only are they weaker candidates in their respective grouping, they seem to be the only ones having difficulty raising funds. McCain may have damaged relationships with big wallets in defense contracting while Edwards funding problems are not so clear. Who will be the first casualty of this exceptionally long campaign season and will it happen before the first primary?

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

McCain Campaign Apologizes to Romney

Saturday June 23, 2007 5:16 AM
By AMY LORENTZEN
Associated Press Writer

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) - John McCain’s presidential campaign has apologized to Republican rival Mitt Romney for comments about the Mormon church allegedly made by a volunteer earlier this year.
A participant at the meeting said Workman questioned whether Mormons were Christians, and he referenced an article alleging that the Mormon church supports the Islamic militant group Hamas. The participant talked to The Associated Press on Friday on condition of anonymity because he is involved in Iowa politics and wanted to protect his identity.

Is this Rudy Giuliani’s idea of providing ‘details’ of his plan for fiscal discipline? The title of his press release indicates it is. If this is to be typical of his 12 commitments and how he intends to ‘detail’ them it is no plan at all. It is just another example of crafting campaign messages that sound alright but tell the public nothing.

At the bottom of the press release was a teaser link suggesting more information about his 12 commitments. Instead it was a link to a cheap stunt to encourage signing a petition about his dubious dozen.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

06-20-2007

Rudy Giuliani Details Commitment to Fiscal Discipline for the American People

In a speech in Des Moines today, Mayor Rudy Giuliani will continue to discuss his 12 Commitments to the American People by detailing his commitment to restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.

The plan approaches budgeting like a business, demanding greater efficiency, transparency and accountability in government to ensure fiscal discipline. Giuliani will call for ending anonymous earmarking, requiring federal agencies to identify annual spending reductions and savings, and reducing the federal civilian workforce through attrition and retirement.

“If we are going to keep our economy moving in the right direction we need to change the way Washington works,” Giuliani has said. “We must address the culture of spending and return to our core principles of fiscal discipline and fiscal responsibility. I commit to making the Federal government more efficient and accountable to the American people and cut irresponsible spending.”

Restoring fiscal discipline and cutting wasteful Washington spending is one of Rudy’s Twelve Commitments to the American People, his bold vision aimed at moving America forward. He will continue to travel the country this summer to detail each of his Twelve Commitments. For more about the Twelve Commitments, please click here.

Trackposted to Outside the Beltway, Perri Nelson’s Website, The Virtuous Republic, DeMediacratic Nation, Jeanette’s Celebrity Corner, Right Truth, Webloggin, Stuck On Stupid, Leaning Straight Up, The Amboy Times, Conservative Cat, Pursuing Holiness, Right Celebrity, stikNstein… has no mercy, The World According to Carl, Pirate’s Cove, The Pink Flamingo, High Desert Wanderer, Right Voices, and The Yankee Sailor, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

Family values has been an abused but recurring theme in political campaigns for some time. It may have been driven by the significance attributed to the religious right and their serious effort to become part of the discussion in politics for more than a decade. Like so much of what politicians do it is difficult to determine how sincere their attachment to real family values are. It ts less of a puzzle with Mitt Romney. If limited to the frequency of repetition it is hard to argue against the annoyance that is the Mormon bashing of Mitt Romney. But one thing is clear whether his opponents take the cheap flip-flop shots or low blows about his faith. Mitt Romney has an exceptionally strong sense of family.

What should be at the core of a return to America’s former greatness and current potential is strong family traditions and the honest structure it brings to society. So much of what made this country great throughout its relatively brief history had a foundation based on family. The family, home, sense of pride and positive effects on community and country are sorely missing to a large extent in the US of the 21st century. Much of the good in this country grew out of the collective histories of family and community. All these strengths are in need of repair and rebuilding. Mitt Romney and the other candidates can do a service to this country by attaching family value to the campaigns. A sincere attachment not just a sound bite or two.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney keeps focus on family values

PERRY BEEMAN
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
June 17, 2007

Burlington, Ia. — Long-haired rocker Ted Nugent prepared to take center stage at the Burlington Steamboat Days on Sunday night, but first it was short-haired fellow conservative Mitt Romney’s turn to play to this riverfront town.

Romney has become a Republican rock star, leading some polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, key states in a race that still is more than a year away from decision day.

The first thought on reading Mitt Romney’s take on managing civilian military matters may raise concern over spending. But if a nation’s military is at a less than optimal capacity for handling security and defense requirements, other spending can take a back seat. If your defense capabilities in manpower are not adequate, other concerns may be moot.

Returning the US to its former strength has many benefits other than the obvious. Requiring military personnel to prolong their deployments beyond typical limits has no real upside. While some may view this as mismanagement, poor planning or not typical, the fact remains it happened and can be avoided in the future. This may have been a lesson worth learning now rather than during a crisis.

Civilian oversight of military matters as well as many other former areas with exceptional histories of performance will need improvement in the coming years to return this nation to its former self. This is just one issue on which Mitt Romney is pointing that out.

It is not just politicians needing to reevaluate the condition in this country. The general public is equally responsible for accepting a share of the blame. If the troubling times we’re experiencing are raising everyone’s awareness of a need to improve, the difficulties may be a mixed blessing. Returning to time tested traditional methods, values, behavior and personal judgment for decision making may be just the thing this country needs. That includes increasing the capacity of our armed forces.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney vows to carry ‘the big stick’

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
DUBUQUE, Iowa – Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney said yesterday that if he’s elected, he wants “to carry the big stick” by increasing the size of the nation’s military.

The former Massachusetts governor said his plans include reversing Clinton administration troop cuts and increasing the military budget. He repeated a call he’s made previously to boost the size of the military by at least 100,000 troops.

It would be great if all those attending the Iowa Straw Poll would acquire surges in the polls to send a message to Giuliani, McCain, Fred Thompson, Gingrich and others to not snub the public during campaign season. In the list below the outcome of the straw poll would be fine just like that, if you remove Ron Paul’s name and move Tom Tancredo to spot two.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

After week of jostling, straw poll lineup set

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

DES MOINES — After a week of jostling, Iowa Republicans appear to have a lineup for their high-profile straw poll later this summer, although there’s still enough time for more surprises as the event grows near.

A slew of other contenders, including Mitt Romney, Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo and Tommy Thompson and John Cox, have committed to competing.

How sincere can Rudy Giuliani be? He bows out of the Iowa straw poll, followed by John McCain. Say what you want about political strategy. But avoiding the straw poll with numbers to now saying Mitt Romney owns Iowa for the GOP shouts concession. So afraid you will lose one early that you decide not to play. But no problem accepting an invite to choreograph a pitch to the voters you just snubbed.

Without running a successful campaign for mayor of New York and being raised to national prominence after 9/11, Rudy might just be another former US attorney and 2nd tier candidate. The coincidence of being term limited after the long painful ordeal of ground zero raises a question Rudy may not want to answer. For all the compliments about his service the one nagging question that should be handled by the former mayor is this. Why were so many people allowed to work at ground zero without proper safety gear? Specifically, with the announcements of many reported cases of respiratory distress of one kind or another from working unprotected at ground zero, how could the man in charge allow that to happen. Anyone who has worked around hazardous materials and with all the regulations governing workplace conditions and requirements, how could so many people be exposed to this obvious risk.

If not in one of many photo ops, news conferences or regular campaign appearances, someone should ask Rudy Giuliani this question at the debate he has just decided to attend. And well before then, someone should ask Rudy Giuliani how he plans to complete his 12 commitments if elected. More details are needed on these campaign promises. The list is generally vague and indicates he will complete some tasks that will receive opposition from Congress and elsewhere. How will he overcome these problems?

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Giuliani Accepts Invite to Iowa Debate

Jun 13, 3:51 PM EDT
By MIKE GLOVER
Associated Press Writer

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has accepted an invitation to joining a presidential debate planned in Des Moines next August sponsored by ABC News, his first major commitment to the state since dropping from a straw poll planned later that month.

“As you are aware, Mayor Giuliani is committed to providing voters with as much information as possible in order for them to evaluate their next president and he strongly believes that debates are in important part of the electoral process,” said campaign manager Michael DuHaime, in a letter to George Stephanopoulos of ABC News.

Trackposted to Outside the Beltway, Perri Nelson’s Website, The Random Yak, Azamatterofact, DeMediacratic Nation, Adam’s Blog, Maggie’s Notebook, Webloggin, Leaning Straight Up, Cao’s Blog, The Amboy Times, The Bullwinkle Blog, third world county, Allie Is Wired, stikNstein… has no mercy, Right Voices, and The Yankee Sailor, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.

It sounds good but like most commitments or campaign promises reality is a President is not a King. A President cannot simply say this is what will be done and it happens. To be fair, all candidates will at some point make similar announcements. It is just part of the game. Now it is the public’s responsibility to test the candidates on such statements rather than nod in agreement or sneer in opposition.

This latest press release by Rudy Giuliani’s camp may indicate he is feeling pressure via the polls and his campaign’s exposure in the media or lack of same. What would have made this an historic proclamation by a candidate is if Rudy had addressed how he would actually get this done or what obstacles he sees in pursuing this grand plan.

Like ‘5. I will impose accountability on Washington.’ How many times have we heard that one? Currently the Democratic majority has claimed victory on draining the swamp (Pelosi) yet the ethics legislation requiring an outside entity to oversee compliance with ethics is suffocating in committee. The bill itself is a joke. The independent status of the ethics body will be entirely under the control of Congress. So, Rudy, how would your effort achieve any more success? Be specific. And offering tax breaks to solve health care issues is totally lame. That is not the problem. The mechanisms that drive the economics of health care is the problem. You get the idea, right?

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

06-12-2007

Rudy Giuliani Unveils Twelve Commitments to the American People

During a speech at the Old Bedford Town Hall in New Hampshire today, Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced Twelve Commitments to the American people, a bold vision aimed at moving America forward through change and reform, overcoming new challenges and increasing accountability in Washington.

Rudy’s Twelve Commitments are based on the principles of giving people more freedom, more power, and more responsibility over their own lives, while protecting our nation, strengthening our economy, and improving the quality of life.

“I believe America solves its problems best from strength, not weakness, and from optimism, not pessimism,” Giuliani said. “My Twelve Commitments are a promise to this generation and generations to come that we will keep the American dream alive. I believe it’s the kind of leadership and common sense accountability the American people need in Washington.”

Mayor Giuliani will travel the country this summer to detail each of his Twelve Commitments.

The Twelve Commitments:

1. I will keep America on offense in the Terrorists’ War on Us.
2. I will end illegal immigration, secure our borders, and identify every non-citizen in our nation.
3. I will restore fiscal discipline and cut wasteful Washington spending.
4. I will cut taxes and reform the tax code.
5. I will impose accountability on Washington.
6. I will lead America towards energy independence.
7. I will give Americans more control over, and access to, healthcare with affordable and portable free-market solutions.
8. I will increase adoptions, decrease abortions, and protect the quality of life for our children.
9. I will reform the legal system and appoint strict constructionist judges.
10. I will ensure that every community in America is prepared for terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
11. I will provide access to a quality education to every child in America by giving real school choice to parents.
12. I will expand America’s involvement in the global economy and strengthen our reputation around the world.

Giuliani is right on this but it is nothing new. Known in some circles as key performance measures, this type of management tool has probably been around since the days of American business introducing it to Japan when they launched the effort that made them famous for becoming a global economic power.

But Rudy Giuliani should get some credit for moving the discussion from Iraq, Iraq, Iraq to the more sensible campaign fundamentals of how each candidate plans to get the job done if elected. To borrow an old phrase, what a concept. Still on the downside for Giuliani is his tendency to shift left on hot button social issues. On the core issues of national security and defense, Rudy may be conservative. But on issues of illegal immigration, abortion, same sex marriage and other more social and partly economic issues he leans left. Makes it tough to compute on the voting scorecard.

For instance, compared to President Bush, if Giuliani were president and faced with a Democratic majority would he be willing to use the veto pen when faced with left leaning social policy in legislation presented? How would a sometimes left leaning president affect the success or failure of conservatives in Congress? These are the questions and reasons that make Rudy Giuliani a risky choice for the nation’s highest office.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Giuliani Wants Stats to Battle Problems

By LIBBY QUAID, Associated Press Writer
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
(06-13) 00:24 PDT WASHINGTON, (AP) –
Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani has a ready answer for the nation’s woes: statistics.
Iraq-stat. Border-stat. Energy-stat. In numerous campaign appearances and debates, the word “stat” — short for statistics — has become a catchword for the former New York mayor, who argues that his use of statistics to fight urban crime can help solve national problems such as illegal immigration and port security.

It has been rather quiet lately on the campaign front. Oh sure, there are the obligatory reports that typically repeat what has already been said like this one is doing, but little else of any new significance is out there. Probably signs of a long campaign season or there is just nothing dramatic to report.

The opinion here is the GOP still has three announced primary contenders and one or two second tier candidates with Gingrich in his own words unlikely to jump in and Fred Thompson expected to announce on July 11 before an appearance on national TV.

The Dems have the two for one Clinton campaign. Buy Hillary Rodham Clinton and get William Jefferson Clinton for free. Take a flyer on Barack Obama or John Edwards or waste your vote on one of the others. The only entertainment that could come from the left is if Al Gore threw his hat in the ring. How’d that be for handing the Clinton’s a little payback. While there are no Al Gore fans at this website, being the only Dem to not benefit from an association with the Clinton gang, anyone could find humor in Al trying to exact some revenge by spoiling the Clinton conspiracy.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney, Clinton Secure Strong N.H. Leads in Recent Polls

By - Beth LaMontagne
(June 11, 2007)
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to widen his lead in the New Hampshire polls over rivals U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. A Franklin Pierce/WBZ poll conducted after the New Hampshire Republican presidential debate shows 27 percent of likely Republican primary voters would cast a ballot for Romney, 18 percent for Giuliani and 17 percent for McCain.

While this is a significant leap for Romney, who received the support of 22 percent of respondents in a similar poll conducted in March, the most drastic change was in Giuliani and McCain’s numbers. Three months ago, 29 percent of likely Republican voters said they supported the senator from Arizona. In the same poll, Giuliani was neck-and-neck with McCain, with 28 percent supporting the former mayor.