Internet Buzz Accurately Predicts Polling Results
While the previous post was about the questionable validity of another similar press release predicting outcomes on various topics like the 2008 Presidential race, the effort described below may present a view with more confidence. Then again, maybe not if the typical problem with forecasts and predictions applies. You may like this one better, or not, just as in the previous case depending on how you would like things to turn out. So does that enter in to the reliability of predictions from various sources? How much of what is predicted has been shaped by the outcomes people would like. For instance, do they take into account the subjective analysis most of us tend to use when pondering the chances of outcomes?
But about all this release has over the previous one is references to well known folks giving the source a thumb’s up. Not much different than famous spokespersons hawking products or services for commercial interests. Ya, I’m not a political pundit but I play one on TV.
This blog is pleased with the part that suggests Romney will pull away from Fred Thompson. Not anything against Fred other than he’s not the first choice here. Although to ‘appease’ fans of Fred who may read this 
, Fred is fine if Romney doesn’t get there.
One point that seems silly about the information below is about Colbert. Who knows if anyone including himself is taking the late entry into the race seriously. So if he received more buzz than Gore and others it seems reasonable to write it off as curiosity or something new to talk about. They can’t seriously be thinking this is important. If people in SC are really thinking about him as a candidate, maybe we’re in more trouble than previously thought.
Internet Buzz Accurately Predicts Polling Results - Wonkosphere.com Expects Giuliani, Romney, Obama, Dodd to Improve
Wonkosphere.com buzz share results for October suggest that Barack Obama will gain ground on Hillary Clinton in national polls over the next few weeks, and Chris Dodd will also move up. The results also predict that Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney will begin to pull away from Fred Thompson.
(PRWEB) November 7, 2007 — Wonkosphere.com reports that voter sentiment seems to be pushing the Republican and Democratic races in opposite directions. “The Republican race, which has been very fluid, appears to be shaping up to be a fight between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson lost 50% of his buzz share amongst conservative bloggers in October, and that’s not a good sign,” said Steve Corman of Wonkosphere. “On the Democratic side, buzz share results suggest that Barack Obama is going to moderately cut into Hillary Clinton’s lead in national poll numbers over the next few weeks.”
The predictions come from Wonkosphere.com, a new web service that uses patented technology to track and analyze over 1200 political blogs. Wonkosphere’s buzz share is calculated every four hours and measures how much bloggers are talking about a particular candidate. In October, Ron Paul led all Republican candidates with 16% buzz share amongst conservative bloggers, repeating his win in September. Rudy Giuliani was second with 13%, followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Fred Thompson (7%), Mike Huckabee (6%), and John McCain (4%).
“Total buzz share doesn’t tell the whole picture though,” said Wonkosphere’s Kevin Dooley. “We have found that it’s not the absolute amount of buzz share that matters, but rather the change in buzz share which is predictive of movement in the national poll numbers. So while Ron Paul won October, he was at the same level of buzz share in September, so we don’t expect his national poll numbers to move. Conversely, Giuliani and Romney both gained buzz share in October, so we expect them to gain in polls, almost exclusively at the expense of Fred Thompson.”
Amongst liberal bloggers, Hillary Clinton (21%) won buzz share in October, followed by Barack Obama (16%), John Edwards (13%), Joe Biden (6%), and Chris Dodd (5%). Comparing these results to September, Wonkosphere predicts that Obama will gain ground on Clinton, Edwards will lose some ground, and Chris Dodd will begin to look like the front-runner for viable “fourth choice”.
All-purpose candidate Stephen Colbert made a dent in the Wonkosphere with the announcement of his South Carolina-only, two-party bid. Taking into account his late entry, Colbert had more buzz share amongst liberal bloggers than Al Gore, Bill Richardson, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel. Amongst conservative bloggers, Colbert got more share of buzz than Sam Brownback, Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Newt Gingrich, and Alan Keyes.
Technology makes measuring buzz share easy
The buzz share results come from Wonkosphere.com, a new web site which tracks and analyzes over 1200 political blogs each day. Patented technology from Arizona State University (ASU) is used to measure each candidate’s buzz share, as well as whether bloggers are ranting or raving about the candidate. Wonkosphere is operated by Crawdad Technologies, a new venture started by Corman and Dooley, who are also professors at ASU. “We knew that the 2008 political campaign would be influenced in unpredictable ways by the Internet,” said Dooley. “We created Wonkosphere.com as a way to give millions of political blog readers a way to stay on top of what was happening across the whole political blogosphere.”
“Technology allows us to keep track of hundreds of times more blogs than any individual has time to read,” added Corman, “and it also allows the analysis to be completely unbiased, so that we can report what’s going on in a truly non-partisan fashion.”
About Wonkosphere
Wonkosphere is designed for bloggers, media, political activists, and political junkies who need to stay on top of the 2008 Presidential race but can’t spend all day searching for the hottest and most relevant material. Wonkosphere has been highlighted by such outlets as USA Today, US News & World Report, Information Week, WIRED Online, MyDD, Andrew Sullivan, Lew Rockwell, Hugh Hewitt, and Reformed Chicks Blabbing. Wonkosphere provides an analysis of the political buzz that is timely and unbiased, made possible by tracking and analyzing over 1200 blogs and web sites per day with its patented text analysis technology. This technology measures each candidate’s buzz share and tone, and highlights the most representative and linked posts. Wonkosphere is a wholly-owned service of Crawdad Technologies, LLC. www.Wonkosphere.com
About Crawdad Technologies
Crawdad Technologies, LLC is the leader in extracting insight from social media. Crawdad Listening Spheres and Posts monitor blogs, social networks, web sites, discussion boards, news media, and periodicals to tell you how brands, products, celebrities, or issues are being talked about. Crawdad uses patented natural language technology to measure content, sentiment, and focus. Listening Post customers include Cold Stone Creamery, Cercone, Brown, & Curtis PR, and the Arizona Republic. Crawdad’s desktop text analysis product is used by over 100 colleges and universities. www.crawdadtech.com
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(No particular reason for the graphic below other than noticing it while preparing this post.)
