Iowa Caucus May Change Everything
Giuliani and McCain stressed the importance of the Iowa caucus and so did Hillary Rodham Clinton. Clinton’s 2nd in command is credited for leaking an internal memo that they should skip the straw poll in August. Some say it was intentional to allow her to restate her commitment. Giuliani announced his withdrawal from the straw polls and McCain did likewise saying without Giuliani it would not be a real test. No candidate in 30 years has missed the straw poll and won the caucus. It is more believable that the significance of the early Iowa influence and Edwards and Romney leading the polls in Iowa forever, Giuliani and McCain don’t want to be embarrassed early. And it is likely the memo thing was Clinton’s way to test the water. She can’t afford to miss Iowa either.
Giuliani’s stand on abortion and gay marriage and McCain’s involvement and promotion of amnesty could very easily sink their campaigns. Add to that the polls showing Fred Thompson more of a threat to Giuliani than Romney and the quiet quake of numerical politics is shifting the strength of candidates.
The story below highlights some interesting details of behind the scenes strategy and tactics in Iowa as well as pointing out the special arrangements for politicians and caucus participants. Seems like a great deal of extra work beyond typical primary elections. That may be why the influence of the Iowa Caucus is based more than on its early debut each cycle.
Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com
They Know How to Caucus
Teresa Vilmain and Other Experts in an Arcane Presidential Art
By Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, June 7, 2007; A01DES MOINES — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had a decision to make. After someone in her campaign leaked a memo late last month suggesting that she skip the Iowa caucuses, the New York Democrat needed to show that she was committed to winning the crucial first contest on the presidential nominating calendar.
Her campaign repeated at every turn that it was serious about Iowa, pointing out that she had been spending a lot of time in the state. But on Tuesday, it offered the ultimate sign of its intentions: It promoted Teresa Vilmain.
Vilmain, 48, has been a near-legend among caucus operatives since she ran Michael S. Dukakis’s Iowa campaign two decades ago at the age of 28. She was raised on Iowa politics, watching as her mother held Democratic caucuses in their Cedar Falls home. With her long skirts and her long hair pulled atop her head, she could be mistaken for an English professor. But she strides into rooms as if tilted against a gale, speaks in the staccato delivery of a ward boss, and never ends a meeting without “action items” for everyone present.
June 9th, 2007 at 10:07 pm
While Thompson is currently pulling more support from McCain and Giuliani, I really don’t think Romney and Thompson can both survive until the convention. If both stay in strong, Rudy wins. The Conservative base has to choose. I like Romney, and I hope the Conservatives are smart enough to see that he is the better candidate.