Iowa: Romney, Clinton Slide and Huckabee Rises
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The statistical tie in Iowa among Clinton, Obama and Edwards finds Obama on top with Edwards edging out Clinton for second. The statistical tie between Romney and Huckabee has Huckabee taking first in Iowa with an 8 point lead. New Hampshire is just days away which is probably good for the winners and not so good for the rest of the pack.
Some reports have Thompson bowing out if he did not have a minimum of 15% for third place. Oops. Other reports figure Romney can’t recover by NH with McCain moving up. But if Clinton doesn’t strike gold in NH her campaign may be in for a rough (short) ride. But for those who do not favor a Clinton candidate that would be a little too much optimism this early in the voting. Or is it?
Some said that if Huckabee could win Iowa, make a decent showing in the next couple of states he could be a contender when the votes move to the South. But they said that is where Thompson would do well. And Giuliani apparently is getting what he planned for in states with few electoral votes….. nothing. Coming out of Iowa, Thompson and Ciuliani are not as strong as there national poll numbers were and Romney had a disappointing finish based on money spent but the negative campaign constant commentary in the media may have hurt his chances in Iowa.
Other reports suggest Edwards may not get much further than Iowa if he did not take first. Well, second is in the middle. Not too hot, not to cold, maybe it is just right. If 2nd is not good enough for Edwards to continue what does that say about Clinton’s chances? Her campaign is viewed as doing better in Iowa than whom? Obama may get a momentum win in NH and if Edwards could take another second…..hmmm.
If Huckabee takes NH he would be in the driver’s seat probably until Super Tuesday. After reviewing Iowa and considering what it may mean to each candidate and what it says, if anything about the rest of the race really shows we don’t know much more than we did yesterday. The people with Excedrin headaches tonite are Clinton and Romney. There surprises were the most noticeable. McCain is keeping a steady strength while on the other side Obama and Edwards are chipping away at the experience and inevitability factors. Basically, still even across the board.