Polls Still Narrow, Undecided Voters Growing?
It is this blog’s opinion that the Gallup polls have trended noticeably higher than others like Rasmussen and Zogby. Similarly the Zogby polls seem to have favored McCain more than others. The bottom line is as many pundits express that polling data may not be as revealing as it sometimes appears. There seems to be no doubt that Obama has an edge in the last month before the November 4th election. However, puzzling polling data or not, the outcome of the 2008 Presidential election still remains uncertain. And the three items that have received the most attention recently are the economy, Obama’s associates and the growing number of investigations into voter fraud. Another noteworthy item is the negative trends by both campaigns and their ads and sound bites in which the MSM focuses largely on the McCain campaign and various attempts by them at fact checking that resolves little.
Could it be that voters, undecided or not, are having second thoughts about Obama’s associates and his tendency to provide distractions away from the topic rather than addressing voter concerns? His repeated responses when available have simply dismissed questionaable associations as mere coincidental contact or relationships that have no bearing on his role in politics or outright lies that he did not have any contact as in ‘just a guy in the neighborhood’ in reference to William Ayers.
With the number one issue in the campaign currently being the economy and voters worrying about their wallets more than the character of presidential candidates, Obama’s advantage with respect to the issue seems to be fading according to recent poll results.
Released: October 13, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
In this latest report, McCain gained eight-tenths of a point, while Obama lost one full point.
For all the flak the MSM and others have tried to hand McCain and Palin for focusing on Obama’s associations the relative closeness of the 2008 race may demonstrate voters are not just concerned about the economy. And that would reflect well on the American voter. No one should be criticized for worrying about their wallet and what the next President can do for them in that regard but history may indicate that such concerns were never really a matter of just one person, a candidate, and their ability to improve the financial position of average citizens. It takes more than just one person, the President for instance, to affect the economy whether that is a boon or boondoggle in the public view. That is why Obama’s associations, choices and judgments in concert with his history and how his views have been shaped are of such importance. Whether you believe McCain is equipped to deal with the nation’s problems or not at least you have information for making the voting decision. Such is not the case with Obama. The primary reason is that he keeps that sort of information to himself and has been shown to be reluctant to give it up.
Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com
October 14th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Interesting historical note:
October 1983 - Mondale leads Reagan by a 50% to 44% margin in the Gallup Poll. Trend Reagan’s approval ratings up from 35% in January ‘83 to 45% by October. Grenada, a month later, propels Reagan over 50% mark.
October 1979 - Carter leads Reagan 48% to 42%, but the President trails Kennedy by 2-to-1 for nomination among Democrats. Trend - The Iranian hostage crisis subsequently boosts Carter’s ratings long enough for him to dispatch Kennedy in the early primaries.