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No matter how you slice it a lead is a lead. Most have their opinion of what polls mean and how serious one should take them. Leading in a poll is better than not leading. But the report from the Concord Monitor points out some interesting data.

The one indication that matters is do the polls show who will likely win an election if it were held today? Romney has been repeatedly mentioned as leading in the early states. If that information held through the early state primaries and Romney won them all on the GOP side, he would have a couple dozen electoral votes. If that were followed by momentum enabling victory in just half the primaries on Super Tuesday, the electoral coup would net near 200 of the 270 electoral votes needed for nomination.

Much could change or much could stay the same between now and the primaries and caucuses. What you have thus far is Gilmore dropping out. The McCain campaign’s survival is in question. Fred Thompson continues to delay any announcement. Giuliani’s campaign seems steady. And Romney continues to show strong numbers.

How the landscape will change if Thompson ever announces is anyone’s guess. On the Dems side it appears to be a race between Clinton and Obama and that’s it. Two notes on fund raising. The media is making noise about the Dems fund raising this quarter and calling it excitement. That’s a clue on where their bias lies. No such clamor from the media was heard in the last quarter when the GOP was stronger. The only truly remarkable fund raising note from the 2nd quarter is Obama’s small donor strategy that by all accounts was impressive. Whether it will be a lasting strength in his campaign remains to be seen.

Stanford Matthews
MoreWhat.com

Romney, Hillary top latest poll

By LAUREN R. DORGAN, Concord Monitor
Published: Monday, Jul. 16, 2007

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., and Mitt Romney hold the leads in their respective New Hampshire primary races, a Concord Monitor poll shows. But it’s not all good news for the top two: The poll finds each would face thornier challenges in the state’s general election than others would.

In the Republican primary, 27 percent back Romney, while 20 percent pick former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and 16 percent choose Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, who hasn’t announced yet, debuts at 15 percent, his numbers appearing to take directly from McCain.

In the Democratic primary, 33 percent choose Clinton, while 25 percent pick Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and 15 percent go with former vice presidential nominee John Edwards. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson snags 7 percent in the poll.

This entry was posted on Monday, July 16th, 2007 at 2:36 pm and is filed under Public Affairs, wordpress, Politics, campaign, election, GOP, Democrats, News Media, Clinton, romney. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.